Its bloody cold outside.  -25 degrees celsius, and with the wind-chill it feels like -33.  But whats colder is my cards lately.  More like – 29 and feels like -52!   Its the same-type pattern that brings me back down.  Frustrating as hell.

You know?  Like a few days ago I am beating this woman who is trash talking me, and just about to take her out, when all of a sudden I go disconnected.  The blinds were big, so by the time I got back (after 3 or 4 more false reconnections) I had 3 or 4 big blinds left and I had to go all in with whatever I had and hope to stay connected long enough to win!  After having a huge lead!  but I disconnected again and logged off.  It was a brutal snowstorm coming in that brought this weather that screwed up the internet.  Blowing winds and heavy snow.

And that was the start of it.  since my last post I had been doing well, and my bankroll was up.  And then this swing of cold weather brought with it cold cards.   I had doubled up three hands into to a tourney a day or 2 later when I had AA and put a guy all in before the flop with A8s.  I dominated for a while, and I shouldve won but I didnt, I blew my lead and was eliminated before the money.   That happened again, even the same day! Id double up fairly early, and lose to a few suckout hands and then a few bad calls and before you know it Im out.

Ok, I wasnt playing my best.  I recognized that.  I was blowing leads in games I shouldve won.  So a day or two go by of trying again, and the list of hands I lost to is just incredible.   Chick raises to 600, I am next to act on the button I call with KQsuited.  Another guy calls, the flop comes KT8.  First guy bets 400, she raises to 1000, I raise to 3500.  Thats 1/3 of my stack of chips.    First guy folds, she calls, the turn is a 5 or something.  She checks, I go all in.  She calls with AT and the river is a ten.  Im out.

Horrible play on her part.  A bet before her, and a reraise after her, and she calls.  Then calls the all in with mid pair.  What a joke.  No flush draws, no straight draws, and I didnt show any bluffs at all I barely played 5 hands!

Another game theres a limper to me in late position, I have 9Tsuited.  I raise about 3.5xbb and get a couple of callers.  The flop comes 9Q8, and I have a good flush draw and mid pair.  someone bets and I raised them and they call, the turn is like the 3 of spades or something and I hit my flush, The guy goes all in and I snapcall and he turns over JKoff.  He has the king of spades and he was betting into a gutshot straight hoping for the ten.  The next card is a spade and he wins with a higher flush.  UNreal.    What compels people to make those decisions?  I cant remember all of my raises but trust me, I dont make it easy for people to call with nothing.

Then of course theres the other games where, lets see..  I raise preflop with QQ and get a caller out of position who subsequently goes all in when the flop is 368 and when I call they have 83offsuit.  And the heads up match where I am just about to take this guy out hes almost out of chips, and he goes all in with A3s and I call with A9s and he hits a couple of threes and wins.  He goes all in next hand and I call with Q9off and he has J5s and hits a jack on the river.  Now were even chips again.  A few hands later I pick up QK suited when he raises and I smooth call to a flop QKA I go all in he calls with AJ and the river is a ten LOL, he wins.

Game after game, after game, after game.  Alter my style.  Do my dishes.  Read a few chapters of a poker book.  Kiss my lucky charm.  TRY AGAIN.

Few hands in I have TT.  Early position.  I raise.  Couple of callers, then the big blind makes a big raise.  Fuck..

Now I have to raise it higher so everyone doesnt get good odds to call, or I just call and hopefully everyone else folds.  I call because Im a bit shot-down from the last few days and the confidence is fragile.  One other caller.  The flop comes low!!  854.   I BET.  Call, call..

Turn is a 3.  “Great”  I think.  “These people probably have A2”   I wait a bit and go all in.  Call, call !  WTF?

THE GUY HAD A2!  you fucking kidding me?  The other guy had 77, and the river brought him a six for the top straight.  This is how im losing.  A2 off reraise, 77 caller.  Calls the bet and hits his long shot.  The other guy calls with mid pair and hits HIS long shot too, and me with the best hand, loses to a couple of longshots.  Makes me hurl.  Makes me blow chunks!

Now I know what your thinking.  “But Darth, your last few post were about hitting 4 outters and making gutshot straights!?  You cant really complain about this can you?”   Well, hold the phone.  In case my methods were unclear allow me to reiterate.  The difference here is I am the bettor.   I make the risky play bet, they make the wrong decision call(reraise the best hand).  Whats happening here is the same thing.  Except now I have the best hand instead of the worst.  And I am making the good bets and they are making the risky bad calls.  “Hoping to hit”

Let me break it down even more.

If I have 23 and the flop is 459, I have an open ended straight draw. any Ace and any 6 will give me a straight.  There are 4 aces and 4 sixes, for a total of 8 outs.  I am about 17% to hit one of them, and about 31% to catch at least one of those cards by the river.   If I bet here, I have ONE chance to win the hand from people folding.  AND I have a SECOND chance to win the hand by catching one of my cards, which is reasonably likely.   And by betting, I am giving him certain odds to decide from.  If the pot is 500, and I bet 400, the pot becomes 900.  Now he has to call a bet of 400 to potentially win a pot of 900.  Its not very good pot odds to call this with Ace high or another draw.   Think of it as a lottery ticket.   You can buy a ticket for 1 dollar, to potentially win 1,000,000 dollars.  Thats pretty good return on your investment if you win.   But lets say the offer was buy a ticket for 75 dollars, to win 100 dollars.   Hmmm, spend 75 dollars and risk losing it, to win only 25 dollars profit?   Does that seem worth it?  NOO.  Does a bear shit in the woods?  YESS :

rogersz 075

I took this picture 🙂

Well poker is no different.  Yes, there are people who just like the “gamble”  but there are games for that.  The beauty about poker is that its not just a gamble.  Odds always change and the hidden beauty is that YOU can control them for other people.   And we can make educated decisions that stand up well against any gamble.

Yes once in a while the gamble will win, but those are the results that educated decision makers rely on:  “Once in a while”   We have a pretty good gig here, the arrangement is, ok sure, you can have “once in a while”  and well take “most of the time.”   You take one slice, Ill have 4 slices.  You can take this one, and now Ill take this one and this one, and this one.

Now back to the hand, the difference is that I am the decision maker in both the longshot bluff, and the best hand pocket pair.  I have assumed control and people will make their decisions based on my bets.  If your chasing one card, its probably a bad decision to call my bet no matter how good the pot odds are.  And they have to make that decision.    If they were to bet to me instead, then Id have to make that decision, which would be a bad one.  Put the tough decisions on them!

Well this last week, thats what my post is about – people making bad decisions that pay off, and they happen to be in a hand with me.  I dont mind losing to QQ when I have TT.  I dont mind losing to QJ when I have 89.  I dont mind losing to 88 when Ive flopped 34567.   Theres thousands of hands I havent complained about on here because theyre legit.   Nobody wants to write about how they got outplayed.  Nice hand.  good game.  Move on.    The ones that get me are the bad decisions.  The hands people have no business playing.  I will make a silly raise with 74hearts out of position, any day, and fire a bet after the flop to a 663 board.   But if I get raised big, then the decision making is on me.  Obviously its a bad decision to continue putting more into the pot, the best hand you can get here is a 34567 straight which is A) very unlikely about 9% chance.  And B) Not guaranteed to be the best hand if you did hit it, with 2 six’s on the flop already and some reraises.   So I would fold most times.  The proper fold.

And Ive written about it before, but it always helps to complain about it.  The improper calls are winning.  The dark clouds are rolling in, right on schedule.  Suddenly the people who make bad decisions are thriving.  And my rewards from my hard efforts two weeks ago are diminished.  But its off of my chest!  : )

theyll take this one, then Ill take that one, and that one, and that one, and that one!   Back in a bit..

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